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Gov. Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke by 5 percentage points, according to a new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

The survey found that Abbott received 45% of support among registered voters, while 40% supported O’Rourke and 4% supported third-party candidates. Three percent of respondents named “Someone else” as their choice, and 8% said they have not thought about the race enough to have an opinion.

The result is almost identical to the margin from when the pollsters last surveyed the race in June, finding Abbott ahead of O’Rourke 45% to 39%.

Voting FAQ: 2024 Elections

When is the next election? What dates do I need to know?

Election Day for the general election is November 5, and early voting will run from Oct. 21 to Nov. 1. The deadline to register to vote and/or change your voter registration address is Oct. 7. Applications to vote by mail must be received by your county of residence – not postmarked – by Oct. 25.

What’s on the ballot for the general election?

In addition to the president, eligible Texans have the opportunity to cast their ballots for many Texas officials running for office at the federal, state and local levels.
This includes representatives in the U.S. and Texas houses and the following elected offices:
-1 U.S Senator (Ted Cruz)
– 1 of 3 Railroad Commissioners
– 15 State Senators
– 7 State Board of Education members
– 3 members of the Texas Supreme Court
– 3 members of the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals
– 5 Chief Justices and various justices for Texas Courts of Appeals

Lower-level judges and local county offices will also appear on the ballot:
– Various district judges, including on criminal and family courts
– County Courts at Law
– Justices of the Peace
– District Attorneys
– County Attorneys
– Sheriffs
– Constables
– Tax Assessor-Collectors

How do I make sure I’m registered to vote?

You can check to see if you’re registered and verify your information through the Texas Secretary of State’s website. You’ll need one of the following three combinations to log in: Your Texas driver’s license number and date of birth. Your first and last names, date of birth and county you reside in. Your date of birth and Voter Unique Identifier, which appears on your voter registration certificate.

What if I missed the voter registration deadline?

You must be registered to vote in a Texas county by Oct. 7 to vote in the Nov. 5 presidential election. You can still register for other elections.
If you’re registered but didn’t update your address by the deadline, you may still be able to vote at your previous voting location or on a limited ballot. (Voters are typically assigned precincts based on where they live. In most major counties, voters can vote anywhere on Election Day, but some counties require you vote within your precinct. If that is the case, you may have to return to your previous precinct. See which counties allow countywide Election Day voting here. You can usually find your precinct listed on your voter registration certificate or on when checking your registration online.)
If you moved from one county to another, you may be able to vote on a ballot limited to the elections you would qualify to vote in at both locations, such as statewide races. However, limited ballots are only available during early voting. Find your county election official here and contact them to ask about or request a limited ballot.

What can I do if I have questions about voting?

You can contact your county elections official or call the Texas Secretary of State’s helpline at 1-800-252-VOTE (8683). A coalition of voting rights groups is also helping voters navigate election concerns through the 866-OUR-VOTE (687-8683) voter-protection helpline. The coalition also has hotlines available for voters who speaker other languages or have accessibility needs.
For help in Spanish, call 888-VE-Y-VOTA or 888-839-8682.
For help in Asian languages, call 888-API-VOTE or 888-274-8683.
For help in Arabic, call 888-YALLA-US or 888-925-5287.
For help in American Sign Language through a video, call 301-818-VOTE or 301-818-8683.
For help from Disability Rights Texas, call 888-796-VOTE or 888-796-8683.

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The latest survey also gave Republican incumbents single-digit leads in two other statewide races. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick led Democrat Mike Collier by 7 points, and Attorney General Ken Paxton registered a 5-point advantage over Democrat Rochelle Garza. More voters remain undecided in those contests than in the gubernatorial election — 20% in the lieutenant governor’s race and 21% in the attorney general one.

Abbott is seeking a third term against O’Rourke, the former El Paso congressman who had a near-miss loss to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. Forty-six percent of respondents approve of the job Abbott is doing while 44% disapprove, according to the poll. It marks an improvement over the June poll, when Abbott’s approval rating was upside down, with 43% approving and 46% disapproving.

When it comes to issues, the poll showed voters continue to prioritize the border. “Immigration/border security” led the list of issues that voters said were most most important to their vote in the election, with 26% choosing it. It was followed by the state economy (13%), abortion (12%) and gun violence (11%).

Voters said they trusted Abbott more on the border and economy and O’Rourke more on abortion. They were equally divided on who had the advantage on gun violence.

O’Rourke has campaigned heavily against Abbott on abortion, highlighting that Abbott signed the “trigger law” that has banned almost all abortions in Texas following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade. Voters registered clear disapproval with the post-Roe landscape in Texas, with 50% saying they support “expand[ing] legal access to abortion services” in the state now versus 31% who disapproved of that idea. And by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, voters said the state should not dedicate more resources to enforcing its abortion ban.

What you can expect from our elections coverage

How we explain voting

We explain the voting process with election-specific voter guides to help Texans learn what is on the ballot and how to vote. We interview voters, election administrators and election law experts so that we can explain the process, barriers to participation and what happens after the vote is over and the counting begins. Read more here.

How readers inform our work

Instead of letting only politicians set the agenda, we talk to voters and scrutinize polling data to understand ordinary Texans’ top concerns. Our readers’ questions and needs help inform our priorities. We want to hear from readers: What do you better want to understand about the election process in Texas? If local, state or congressional elected officials were to successfully address one issue right now, what would you want it to be? What’s at stake for you this election cycle? If we’re missing something, this is your chance to tell us.

How we hold officials accountable

We do not merely recount what politicians say, but focus on what they do (or fail to do) for the Texans they represent. We aim to provide historical, legal and other kinds of context so readers can understand and engage with an issue. Reporting on efforts that make voting and engaging in our democracy harder is a pillar of our accountability work. Read more here.

How we choose what races to cover

We aren’t able to closely cover all 150 races in the Texas House, 31 in the Texas Senate or 38 for the Texas delegation in the next U.S. House. We need to choose what races we cover closely by using our best judgment of what’s most noteworthy. We take into account factors like power, equity, interest and competitiveness in order to determine what warrants more resources and attention. Read more here.

How we cover misinformation

In reporting on falsehoods and exaggerations, we clearly explain why it is untrue and how it may harm Texans. Sometimes, we choose to not write about misinformation because that can help amplify it. We’re more likely to debunk falsehoods when they are spread by elected officials or used as a justification for policy decisions. Read more here.

O’Rourke has also been highly critical of Abbott’s refusal to support any new gun restrictions following the Uvalde school shooting. The poll found voters continue to want stricter gun laws, with 54% saying they should be more strict and 23% saying they should be left as is.

Abbott’s biggest advantage remains the border. By a 12-point margin, voters said they trusted him to do a better job on “immigration/border security” than O’Rourke. And 51% said they support Abbott’s program to bus migrants to other parts of the country that has captured headlines recently. Thirty-five percent opposed the initiative.

President Joe Biden remains unpopular in Texas, though not as much as he was earlier in the summer. The latest poll found Biden has a net approval rating of negative 12 points in Texas, a figure that was negative 20 in June.

The poll of 1,200 registered voters was conducted online from Aug. 28 to Sept. 6. The margin of error was +/- 2.83 points.

Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.


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